Cornwall Insight’s Latest Research ‘Green certificate survey‘shows that Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO) prices have increased significantly in recent months, with reported average prices of £ 1.35 / REGO for Fuel Blend Disclosure (FMD) 2021-22 and £ 1.41 / REGO for FMD 2022-23. That’s 228% and 214% higher, respectively, than the prices shown in the April 2021 survey.

The Green Certificate survey is designed to provide an overview of the market research of 55 industry organizations from July 20 to August 6.

Survey respondents indicated that fuel-less (wind, solar and hydro) or “deep green” REGOs continue to be priced higher than powered REGOs (energy from waste, landfill gas and landfill gas. the biomass). For example, the reported prices for foot-and-mouth disease 2021-22 averaged £ 1.72 / REGO for non-fueled REGOs, compared to £ 1.03 / REGO for powered REGOs.

Luke Ansell, Senior Analyst at Cornwall Insight, said: “In line with this reported price increase, 64% of respondents reported a strong upward trend in REGO values ​​in the past three months with no respondent reporting a downward trend.

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“The price increase was caused by a combination of factors, including lower than average wind generation, demand pressure from the growing popularity of renewable tariffs backed by certificates, and additional demand resulting from the purchase of last minute compliance for FMD 2020-21 obligations.

“In line with post-Brexit trade deals, the possibility that Guarantees of European Origin (GoO) will no longer be accepted for foot-and-mouth disease in Britain has further fueled demand for REGO and rising prices. However, 66% of participants said this expectation is already built into the current market.

“These high prices are expected to continue, with 86% of respondents expecting REGO prices to stay at current levels or increase further, with the majority (at 59%) expecting further price increases. Additionally, respondents indicated a fundamentally shorter market due to the end of implicit trade in European GoOs, the potential for a total ban of EU GoOs for use in the UK and growing demand from businesses. and domestic users as future price factors.

“On August 16, BEIS opened the consultation ‘Designing a framework for transparency of the carbon content of energy products’. This call for papers solicits views on whether the use of REGO certificates for annualized renewable energy matching inhibits consumer transparency and on how the REGO framework could be adapted to generate additional investment in renewable energy. renewable energy production.

“Given the recent attention of several government agencies on ‘green laundering’, 57% of those polled said they expected changes in the regulation of green energy tariffs (before the opening of the BEIS consultation), and the BEIS call for evidence could be the first step in this direction.