Do you think the overhang that was there in the twins is over or do you think the street will wait for the merger to pay off and then we’ll see the next step or the upgrade?
Broker notes were released this morning on MSCI’s changes and their benefits. So much news is coming out and I think that was really one of the catalysts behind this move of the twins. I haven’t gotten confirmation of that yet, but from what I’ve seen, briefly, it has more to do with that technical part of the notes, what it might be in the future.
It just came at a time when the market was going up anyway and it added fuel to the fire for the banks, especially the HDFC twins.
As for the US inflation data, this is very positive news, but it’s only been a month and we still have to go through a trickier period. Certainly I would say that Powell, although he didn’t fully pivot, he gave the idea that the pace of the increases would slow down and the narrative now with this month of lower data for inflation for other speakers in the The Fed would say that the pace of the increases could be less than what the market was perhaps anticipating.
So maybe it’s 50 basis points in December. But we’ll still be hiking and although we’re looking forward to today, it’s not over. We see the problems in the crypto markets. But there’s a lot of cash, and at the end of the day, it’s always about cash.
“ Back to recommendation stories
We always have these unintended consequences in different asset classes. We’ve seen it in the UK with pension funds, we’ve seen it again now with cryptos. So I’m not saying we’re out of the woods, but I’m clear that inflation will come down and the Fed will pause around 5%. If we have a 4% inflation target, I think that’s where we’ll probably get in the first half of next year.
Assuming there’s a change of heart, a change of strategy, and a belated realization by some of the fintech proponents that doing business when you’re not listed versus doing business when you’re listed is a completely different story, do you think it’s a good time to buy those stocks?
It’s something we’ve started to look at much more closely. I can’t say we’ve fully done our homework yet. We have yet to do this but one thing is for sure these businesses will pull through and if you’re right that the drive to make money is going to be at the forefront of their minds then that bodes well for making money the money. in stocks in the future.
There are two things that will play out; one is that tech in the US will probably have a bit of a short term bounce because those prices just got decimated and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a bit more follow through and that will lead to better sentiment and narrative around our own IT stocks, which will then drift into some of the internet stocks we have or tech stocks we have.
The trend in these industries will not escape us. For now I would be looking very closely at Nykaa, Paytm and Zomato in terms of business models and whether they can maintain what they have been doing and continue to grow in what should be a huge industry for all of them, then it’s time to dive in.